Betting: 2019 MLB Season Player Props – Stolen Bases

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The 2019 MLB season is quickly nearing and that means it is season long player prop time! For the 2018 season, I logged winners on 44 out of 67 (66%) season long player prop bets on their over/under marks in statistical categories. Those bets are undocumented outside of my own records, but those who know me well know I am an honest gentleman, and they also know I have a bit of a knack on this baseball thing.

Laying down some of that hard-earned cheddar to have to wait over six months to see any potential return on these season long props can be quite a drawn out process, but hey, baseball is a drawn out sport that is not for the impatient or for the thrill seeking adrenaline junkies. So if you are one that can truly appreciate the thought, deliberation, skill, and strategy that goes into this game that most grown men can only dream of playing for a living, then you should have no problem waiting the six plus months to see your bankroll additions! But if you are one that thinks baseball is “boring,” a.) I don’t necessarily blame you and b.) then you can still read the analysis below, bet it and forget it, don’t watch a single at-bat all season, then login to your account on September 30 for a pleasant monetary surprise.

These picks are based off my personal hand-crafted statistical player projections.

***Unless noted otherwise, all lines are from MyBookie.

***I will be referencing a stat called SBA/TOB. This is “stolen base attempts per time on base.” It is (stolen bases + caught stealing) / (singles + doubles + walks + hit by pitches). It is not an exact measurement due to the fact that players will also reach via fielder’s choice or fielding errors, and also a player may reach base but the base in front of them may be occupied, which would prevent them from even attempting a stolen base unless it was a double steal.

So let’s get caught looking at these props!

LIKES

Trea Turner: Over 43.5 stolen bases (-125) – As referenced in Betting: 2019 MLB Season Player Props – Runs, Trea’s manager, Dave Martinez, wants him to attempt 75-80 stolen bases. Obviously for this player prop, that would be extremely ideal, but just the mere mention of it by Martinez may mean he views or wants Turner as his regular leadoff hitter this year after logging a greater number of plate appearances from the 2-hole. Out of the leadoff spot last year, Turner had a SBA/TOB mark of 26.1%, which is a good but not elite mark, but it also was still considerably higher than his 19.5% mark out of the 2-hole. From the 2-hole, in front of Bryce Harper, Turner just seemed much more hesitant to attempt to steal as that would lead to Harper being intentionally walked or pitched around. Overall as a leadoff hitter in his career, Turner has a SBA/TOB mark of 38.0% — now that’s more of an elite mark. And actually, if he gets back to that rate, he probably would get 75 attempts if avoiding the IL. But more conservatively, I have him projected at a 29.0% mark with a success rate right in line with his career rate of 83.2%. The Backwards K projection: 51 stolen bases Continue reading

Betting: 2019 MLB Season Player Props – Runs

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The 2019 MLB season is quickly nearing and that means it is season long player prop time! For the 2018 season, I logged winners on 44 out of 67 (66%) season long player prop bets on their over/under marks in statistical categories. Those bets are undocumented outside of my own records, but those who know me well know I am an honest gentleman, and they also know I have a bit of a knack on this baseball thing.

Laying down some of that hard-earned cheddar to have to wait over six months to see any potential return on these season long props can be quite a drawn out process, but hey, baseball is a drawn out sport that is not for the impatient or for the thrill seeking adrenaline junkies. So if you are one that can truly appreciate the thought, deliberation, skill, and strategy that goes into this game that most grown men can only dream of playing for a living, then you should have no problem waiting the six plus months to see your bankroll additions! But if you are one that thinks baseball is “boring,” a.) I don’t necessarily blame you and b.) then you can still read the analysis below, bet it and forget it, don’t watch a single at-bat all season, then login to your account on September 30 for a pleasant monetary surprise.

These picks are based off my personal hand-crafted statistical player projections.

***Unless noted otherwise, all lines are from MyBookie.

***I will be referencing a stat called R/TOB. This is “runs scored per time on base” and measures the rate at which a player scores a run from the times they put themselves on base (this excludes home runs).

So let’s get caught looking at these props!

LIKES

Andrew Benintendi: Over 99.5 runs (-115) – Red Sox manager Alex Cora has stated his intentions to have reigning AL MVP be the club’s primary #2 hitter after having all but 6 of his 614 plate appearances last year come from the leadoff spot. This means that Benintendi now becomes the primary leadoff man for the defending champions. The move makes sense given that at each of their respective stages in their careers, Betts has the better hit tool to be driving guys in and putting the ball in play to create that action, and Benintendi does have the ability to post an above average OBP mark that would be desired out of a leadoff man. In a lineup as potent as the Red Sox, the switch from 2nd to leadoff for Benintendi may seem negligible, but having both Betts and J.D. Martinez behind him has to be seen as an on paper upgrade for his runs scored potential where his R/TOB could hit 40%. The Backwards K projection: 110 runs

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2016 Fantasy Baseball Shortstop Rankings

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It’s an exciting time for shortstops in fantasy baseball, and for reality baseball for that matter as well — but as I like to say…this is real living in a fantasy world. And I can’t get enough of it! 7 of the top 10 ranked shortstops on this list are 23 years old or younger. Yes, that is correct! That is the state of where this position is moving toward in fantasy baseball, which might make it appear to be very attractive and deeper than recent years. I will say that it is deeper in terms of the amount of talent and potential, but there might be an overrating of some of the young talent. I know what you’re thinking — “How can you say it’s overrating of young talent when you have 7 of the youngsters ranked so highly in the top 10?” Well, it’s simple. There’s the super elite talent at the top 2, but after that it is a steep dropoff to some of these other youngsters that are being treated as if they are already valuable fantasy commodities when in the reality of the fantasy world they have much to prove. Yet, they are still better than much of the rest of the shortstop player pool.

Below are THE BACKWARDS K 2016 FANTASY BASEBALL SHORTSTOP RANKINGS. Included for each player is “The Backwards K Quick Take” and a self-produced player projection for 2016.

***Please note the following:

  • The player’s names are color coded to signal different tiers at the position.
  • The rankings reflect standard 5×5 roto scoring settings (AVG/HR/RBI/R/SB) with position eligibility requirements as 10 total games played at a position in 2015, or 5 total games started at a position in 2015 (i.e. Yahoo! settings).
  • The numerical order is not necessarily a suggested order to draft them in, but it is the order that is calculated based on each player’s listed projections, unless noted otherwise.
  • Noted in some players’ “Quick Takes” is if they gain or lose notable value in points leagues that factor penalize hitter strikeouts and reward hitter walks.

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