Stephen Strasburg pitched at Arizona on Tuesday night and was handed a beat down in one of the worst outings of his career as he only lasted 3.1 IP while allowing 8 runs (7 ER). On the season, Strasburg is now 2-4 with a 6.06 ERA, 1.71 WHIP, and 35 K/11 BB in 35.2 IP.
I am not sure what exactly is the cause of his putrid performance, but clearly he isn’t doing much right. Strasburg did leave his previous start with some shoulder irritation, so maybe that played a part in Tuesday’s nightmare, but he hadn’t exactly been sharp in his 6 starts before Tuesday either. Yeah, he has an incredibly high .398 BABIP and a horrible 60.2% strand rate, but there comes a point where you examine things and just have to say that perhaps he is creating his own bad luck.
There’s not much in his velocity or pitch selection that jumps out in a negative light, besides the fact that his velocity on his fastball has been down 0.4 MPH from last year, but that’s not that great of a difference to think that it is the primary factor in his awful season thus far. But examining his plate discipline numbers, there are a few stats that stand out (the following stats do not include data from Tuesday night’s game). First, hitters have been making contact off Strasburg at a rate (84.3%) that is way higher than his career rate (75.9%). Coincidentally, Strasburg also has been inducing swinging strikes at a rate (7.0%) that is much lower than his career rate (10.9%). Next, Strasburg is throwing pitches in the strike zone way more than usual (54.2% this year vs. 45.3% career). And then Strasburg is getting much fewer swings on pitches out of the zone (28.0% this year vs. 32.8% career) and when hitters are swinging on pitches out of the zone, they are making contact on them a lot (73.2% this year vs. 60.0% career). To me, all this data would suggest that he is creating his own bad luck by just grooving a lot of pitches that batters can easily handle since he is working within the strike zone so much more than he has in the past. The plummeting swinging strike rate though is a big concern and possibly could be indicative of just losing his stuff so to speak.
Another possible explanation could be he has been pitching with an injury all along, even before the previous start that he left with shoulder irritation. A possible injury could cause loss of command of pitches, which leads to the pitch grooving. Also remember that Strasburg did undergo Tommy John surgery in August of 2010, and somewhere I read that the average threshold for a pitcher to have to undergo Tommy John surgery a second time is around 650 innings pitched. Now I am not sure where I read that or what statistical analysis was used to back up that claim, but I know that I did read it. So if we want to believe that, Strasburg has now pitched 637.1 innings since his Tommy John surgery. Perhaps he is due for another surgery, or perhaps it is something else. Either way, something is not right for Strasburg and he could be in for a long season.
Let’s see what else happened in Tuesday night action… Continue reading