Trading Places: Tulo & Reyes

Embed from Getty Images

The big story of Monday night came late when it was reported that the Toronto Blue Jays and Colorado Rockies had agreed on a blockbuster trade that would send veteran reliever LaTroy Hawkins north of the border. The Blue Jays had been in the market for some relief pitching help and Hawkins’ veteran savvy can surely prove to be the stepping stone to turning the Jays inexperienced bullpen into a real force in the American League East down the stretch run as they vie for a spot in the post-season.

Also added in to sweeten the deal for the Jays was the oft injured shortstop, Troy Tulowitzki, whose offensive stats have long been inflated by the thin air of Coors Field. Tulowitzki will provide some middle infield depth alongside the slick fielding Ryan Goins and Munenori Kawasaki.

Oh, wait. This doesn’t sound right…

I am just joking of course. Tulowitzki was the center piece of this trade and is a veteran star (and Hawkins probably won’t be instrumental in turning the Jays bullpen into a force — though never say never!). And going over to Colorado in this trade is veteran shortstop Jose Reyes along with a trio of pitching prospects that include Miguel CastroJeff Hoffman, and Jesus Tinoco.

Yes, Tulowitzki is oft injured and has had Coors Field to aid his performance over the years, but there’s no doubting that he is a good hitter and defender whose presence will be known. The Blue Jays had been known to be in the market for pitching both on the starting and relief ends, so a splash like this to add another slugger to what is already an incredibly powerful lineup that is 3rd in the Majors in home runs and 1st in the Majors in runs scored (by a hefty 72 run margin) was surely unexpected to say the least.

As I alluded to, Tulowitzki has performed better at Coors Field than on the road in his 10-year career, which would be the case for mostly any Rockies hitter. At Coors Field, Tulowitzki has a career line of .321/.394/.558 with 106 HR in 526 games. On the road, he has hit .276/.349/.468 with 82 HR in 521 games. So there is an apparent difference, but he’s still been a pretty good hitter on the road and he will be joining a very good lineup that plays its home games in a very advantageous park as well. The Rogers Centre in Toronto definitely is not the same type of hitters haven that Coors Field is, but it is one of the better places to hit for right-handed batters in the Majors. Just ask Josh Donaldson who is loving calling Rogers Centre his home for the first season as he is hitting .340/.380/.660 with 15 HR in 47 games.

What may be even more concerning about Tulowitzki joining Toronto than the move away from Coors Field is playing his home games on artificial turf in the Rogers Centre. Tulowitzki has been no stranger to the disabled list as it kind of has been his figurative home away from home since he generally lands there at least once a season (but not yet this season — *fingers crossed). Artificial turf has been known to be less forgiving on the lower body for players. So with Tulowitzki’s injury history and the fact that he will be turning 31 this fall, this could potentially mark the downswing of his career. And with the trade, Tulowitzki’s contract now includes a full no-trade clause for the remainder of his contract that runs through 2020. So while this trade for the Blue Jays seems impactful in a positive way for this season, it might not turn out so great when it’s all said and done.

From a fantasy perspective, Tulowitzki may lose some slight value with the home park switch, but he’s still in a favorable situation, and joining a loaded lineup could help to negate any potential difference in the home parks. Where he will be inserted into the lineup is not known yet, but the subtraction of Reyes from the Blue Jays lineup, who has been their leadoff hitter, means that they will be doing some lineup shuffling. Donaldson saw some time in the leadoff spot this season when Reyes was on the DL, so he might move back there with Tulowitzki slotting behind him in the 2-hole. Or another option would be to move rookie second baseman Devon Travis up to the leadoff spot as he also has spent some time there this season, though rather unsuccessfully hitting just .195/.267/.317 in 82 AB. If Travis is the one who takes over the leadoff spot then Tulowitzki could really hit anywhere from 3rd to 5th in the lineup. Whatever the case, Tulowitzki will still be in a great spot to produce well for fantasy — it’s Travis who could really see a big boost in value if he is given another chance at leading off.

For the Rockies, they are always searching for pitching prospects to try and find the right guys who have the right repertoire and makeup to succeed in pitching at Coors Field. But this young trio of prospects that they received have to be hating life right now as they must be aware of the long list of pitchers who have failed as Rockies players. Ultimately, it could cost them many dollars in future earnings. Hoffman was the Blue Jays 1st round pick in the 2014 draft and is considered to be the most intriguing of the prospects. But with the Rockies, none of them will have any fantasy value for the remainder of this season, unless Miguel Castro (who closed out a few games early in the season for the Blue Jays) is given a chance to close at some point. For keeper and dynasty leagues, it would be difficult to roster these pitchers knowing that their immediate future is in the Rockies organization.

Reyes will take over Tulowitzki’s spot on the diamond at shortstop, but there is the chance that he gets flipped to another team for more prospects. But on the assumption that he does remain with the Rockies beyond the trade deadline, Reyes should get a boost in value playing at Coors Field despite having an underwhelming career line at Coors Field of .254/.259/.447 with 2 HR in 25 games. He would likely hit 1st or 2nd for the Rockies with the current Rockies just being slightly shifted in the lineup, so there would really be no big change in fantasy value for anyone.

***UPDATE (7/28/15 12:00 PM PST)

Something that I overlooked initially is the fact that if Reyes is indeed flipped to another team, that potentially opens up shortstop for the Rockies prospect Trevor Story. Story is one of the organization’s top prospects and has worked his way up from AA to AAA during this season. Between the two levels, he has hit .281 with 16 HR, 56 RBI, 60 R, and 15 SB in 90 games played this season. But what’s been the most important part of his season has been his improvement in his strikeout rate. In 2013 at high-A ball, Story struck out 33.0% of the time. In 2014 across four levels and ending at AA, he struck out 30.3% of the time. But this season, he has cut that rate all the way down to 23.4%. The power and speed blend is obviously there and has been there for his whole professional career, so for him to show improvement in his plate approach and discipline at the age of 22 is a great sight. Story should be monitored in all leagues.

Jays to Have New Closer Osuna or Later (and other notes from 6/22/15)

Embed from Getty Images

Brett Cecil began the year as the closer for the Blue Jays, but then was replaced by 20-year old righty Miguel Castro very early into the season because Cecil was struggling with velocity issues.  Castro held down the gig for two weeks converting 4 of 6 save opportunities, but then he began to struggle and eventually was sent to the Minors to allow Cecil to reclaim the job in late April as his velocity began to climb back up.  However, though he was the closer, Cecil amazingly saw only one save opportunity in the month of May.  But over the last couple of weeks, the Jays have been finding themselves in more situations where they have had a 3 run lead or less in the 9th inning and Cecil has managed to collect 3 saves since June 12.

But in Cecil’s last three outings, he has given up 8 runs on 6 hits and 3 walks in only 2.1 IP, and he got charged with one blown save and two losses in those games.  Cecil just isn’t pitching well right now and he definitely is not an ideal closer as a left-handed pitcher who has allowed a .273 AVG and .352 wOBA to right-handed hitters in his career.

I said in Sunday’s notes that Cecil would probably not be given the next save opportunity, and on Monday with the Jays up 3 runs, Cecil was nowhere to be found.  Perhaps he was just being given the night off after having thrown a total of 65 pitches in the last 3 days, but I think at the very least Cecil is being downgraded to a closer by committee situation.  I suggested that 20-year old fireballer Roberto Osuna would be the guy to see the next save opportunity for the Jays and indeed it was Osuna on Monday who came in to put out a fire, and he got the 6-out save with an amazing 5 strikeouts.

Osuna now owns a 2.12 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, and 40 K/10 BB in 34 IP.  He certainly has the stuff to succeed as a 9th inning man and he is worthy of a pickup in all formats for now and he can run away with the job.  Watching him get the 6-out save on Monday was pretty amazing, as the Rays hitters didn’t know what to do with the heat that he throws, continually swinging through the fastball.  But as I’ve mentioned previously, beware of the Jays trading for a proven closer, which would push Osuna back to a setup role and render Cecil useless.

Let’s take a look at the rest of Monday! Continue reading