Betting: 2019 MLB Season Player Props – Home Runs (Part One)

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The 2019 MLB season is quickly nearing and that means it is season long player prop time! For the 2018 season, I logged winners on 44 out of 67 (66%) season long player prop bets on their over/under marks in statistical categories. Those bets are undocumented outside of my own records, but those who know me well know I am an honest gentleman, and they also know I have a bit of a knack on this baseball thing.

Laying down some of that hard-earned cheddar to have to wait over six months to see any potential return on these season long props can be quite a drawn out process, but hey, baseball is a drawn out sport that is not for the impatient or for the thrill seeking adrenaline junkies. So if you are one that can truly appreciate the thought, deliberation, skill, and strategy that goes into this game that most grown men can only dream of playing for a living, then you should have no problem waiting the six plus months to see your bankroll additions! But if you are one that thinks baseball is “boring,” a.) I don’t necessarily blame you and b.) then you can still read the analysis below, bet it and forget it, don’t watch a single at-bat all season, then login to your account on September 30 for a pleasant monetary surprise.

These picks are based off my personal hand-crafted statistical player projections. ***Unless noted otherwise, all lines are from MyBookie.

The largest percentage of my player prop picks are on home runs, so the home runs category is going to be broken up into two parts. This post will focus on all picks that have a home run over/under of 24.5 or greater.

So let’s get caught looking at these props!

LIKES

Aaron Judge: Over 39.5 home runs (+105) – I am not too sure why we are getting plus odds here, but we will most certainly accept it. Last year, your honor was not quite on pace to repeat his monstrous 52 HR rookie season, but he did pop 26 HR in the Yankees’ first 100 games before getting plunked with a fractured wrist in the 101st game. That only equates to a 42 HR pace before the injury, but that still would have eclipsed this 39.5 home run line. The drop in pace was also a byproduct of his flyball% dropping from 43.2% to 35.0%. He is still young and growing as a hitter, so I move for him to gain back some of those flyballs and I think Judge will oblige and grant the motion. The Backwards K projection: 43 home runs

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Fantasy Baseball Waiver Wire (8/28/15): Bear Arms with Berrios’ Arm

Credit: Tommy Gilligan/USA Today Sports

Credit: Tommy Gilligan/USA Today Sports

Greetings to the all the fantasy baseball folk, I’m back with another edition of the Fantasy Baseball Waiver wire! Unless you’re contending near the top of the standings in your fantasy baseball league, chances are that you’ve already begun to forget about the baseball season and are gearing up for a fantasy football draft deciding which quarterback is going to have the big breakout (I personally think Ryan Tannehill is going to be a fantasy gold). But if you’re still paying attention to your fantasy baseball team, there may be some players available on the waiver wire for you to snag to aid you in your run for the championship.

Last week’s recommendations didn’t go over so hot, but that’s largely a byproduct of the fact that I’ve already recommended a lot of the best waiver wire options in the past few weeks and I am trying to avoid any repeat mentions so I am scraping the bottom of the barrel here. However, in the recommendations below, I will have a couple of repeat mentions, but they are players who have yet to debut in the Majors. So first, let’s review last week’s recommendations (check out last week’s full article here) and we’ll give a new set of 6 hitters and 6 pitchers who could be useful to your fantasy squad.

***NOTE: To qualify as a waiver wire recommendation, a player must be owned in less than 50% of Yahoo and ESPN leagues and less than 60% of CBS leagues (players typically have higher ownership levels on CBS). Continue reading

Top 25 Shortstops for 2015 Fantasy Baseball

*The order of these rankings are based on a valuation system for a 5×5 roto scoring league with 5 games played minimum for position eligibility.  This is not necessarily the order I would draft these players in, as different factors should impact which player to choose.

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