The 2019 MLB season is quickly nearing and that means it is season long player prop time! For the 2018 season, I logged winners on 44 out of 67 (66%) season long player prop bets on their over/under marks in statistical categories. Those bets are undocumented outside of my own records, but those who know me well know I am an honest gentleman, and they also know I have a bit of a knack on this baseball thing.
Laying down some of that hard-earned cheddar to have to wait over six months to see any potential return on these season long props can be quite a drawn out process, but hey, baseball is a drawn out sport that is not for the impatient or for the thrill seeking adrenaline junkies. So if you are one that can truly appreciate the thought, deliberation, skill, and strategy that goes into this game that most grown men can only dream of playing for a living, then you should have no problem waiting the six plus months to see your bankroll additions! But if you are one that thinks baseball is “boring,” a.) I don’t necessarily blame you and b.) then you can still read the analysis below, bet it and forget it, don’t watch a single at-bat all season, then login to your account on September 30 for a pleasant monetary surprise.
These picks are based off my personal hand-crafted statistical player projections.
***Unless noted otherwise, all lines are from MyBookie.
***I will be referencing a stat called R/TOB. This is “runs scored per time on base” and measures the rate at which a player scores a run from the times they put themselves on base (this excludes home runs).
So let’s get caught looking at these props!
Andrew Benintendi: Over 99.5 runs (-115) – Red Sox manager Alex Cora has stated his intentions to have reigning AL MVP be the club’s primary #2 hitter after having all but 6 of his 614 plate appearances last year come from the leadoff spot. This means that Benintendi now becomes the primary leadoff man for the defending champions. The move makes sense given that at each of their respective stages in their careers, Betts has the better hit tool to be driving guys in and putting the ball in play to create that action, and Benintendi does have the ability to post an above average OBP mark that would be desired out of a leadoff man. In a lineup as potent as the Red Sox, the switch from 2nd to leadoff for Benintendi may seem negligible, but having both Betts and J.D. Martinez behind him has to be seen as an on paper upgrade for his runs scored potential where his R/TOB could hit 40%. The Backwards K projection: 110 runs