Category Archives: Player Props

Betting: 2019 MLB Season Player Props – Awards

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To round out this series of posts on player props betting for the 2019 MLB season, we are going to take a look at all the awards that can be wagered on. I will not necessarily be wagering on all of these, some of these will just be “forced leans” in order to provide some sort of recommendation, but I will label it as a LIKE or a LEAN to indicate what I personally have wagered on. When all is said and done, some of the leans I may end up taking for the action.

**Unless otherwise noted, all lines are from MyBookie

So let’s get caught looking at these props!

AMERICAN LEAGUE MVP

Personally, I probably would not feel comfortable wagering on anyone to win this award besides Mike Trout at +250. I believe that Trout is just in for a career year that is going to blow all the other fish out of the water, and that no matter if the Angels end up contending or not, Trout’s performance will be amazing enough to take home the hardware. But I am going to throw a couple suggestions out there as LEANS on guys whose odds are long enough to potentially have some value should Trout suffer an injury (God forbid).

Andrew Benintendi (+5000) (LEAN) – Benintendi is all set to leadoff for the defending champions where he will be hitting in front of a couple of pretty okay hitters in Mookie Betts and J.D. Martinez. In that spot, we know that Benintendi will score a lot of runs, but he is going to really have to step up his game in some other aspects in order to make a run at MVP here, but I do see some sort of pathway for him to do it. Firstly, he is going to have to become a .300 hitter. He was a .300 hitter in the Minors, but that was largely in part due to his elite ability to avoid striking out. His 16.0% K% from last year is good, but not elite. If he can cut down on the strikeouts by a few percentage points, then that should be enough for his first .300 AVG season. What also may help his AVG as well as boost his overall resume is if he adds on some pop. This is probably going to be his biggest obstacle. While he has shown 20 HR pop from the 2017 season, it is going to be tough to expect a big progression in this category, especially since he has been quoted this Spring Training as saying his focus is on his AVG and not HR since he is now a leadoff hitter, and his home park is not conducive to left-handed home runs. But being a leadoff hitter now, he may start running more. While not a burner on the base paths, he seems to pick his spots well and is efficient. It may not be out of the question for Benintendi to push 30 SB. So it seems like the best case scenario here is something like a .315 AVG with 25 HR, 90 RBI, 125 R, 30 SB, which would almost certainly put him in the MVP conversation.

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Betting: 2019 MLB Season Player Props – Strikeouts

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The 2019 MLB season is quickly nearing and that means it is season long player prop time! For the 2018 season, I logged winners on 44 out of 67 (66%) season long player prop bets on their over/under marks in statistical categories. Those bets are undocumented outside of my own records, but those who know me well know I am an honest gentleman, and they also know I have a bit of a knack on this baseball thing.

Laying down some of that hard-earned cheddar to have to wait over six months to see any potential return on these season long props can be quite a drawn out process, but hey, baseball is a drawn out sport that is not for the impatient or for the thrill seeking adrenaline junkies. So if you are one that can truly appreciate the thought, deliberation, skill, and strategy that goes into this game that most grown men can only dream of playing for a living, then you should have no problem waiting the six plus months to see your bankroll additions! But if you are one that thinks baseball is “boring,” a.) I don’t necessarily blame you and b.) then you can still read the analysis below, bet it and forget it, don’t watch a single at-bat all season, then login to your account on September 30 for a pleasant monetary surprise.

These picks are based off my personal hand-crafted statistical player projections.

***Unless noted otherwise, all lines are from MyBookie.

LIKES

Trevor Bauer: Over 219.5 strikeouts (-115) – As if Bauer’s 30.8% K% last year wasn’t enough, Bauer spent the off-season working on a changeup to bolster is strikeout potential even more and he has been throwing it plenty in Spring Training to get a good feel for it against live batters. Bauer hit this mark with 221 strikeouts in only 175.1 innings pitched last year due to an injury suffered on a comebacker. Having a clean bill of history to his upper arm and upper body, paired with solid mechanics, the only real threat to Bauer not to hit this is another freak injury. The Backwards K projection: 255 strikeouts

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Betting: 2019 MLB Season Player Props – ERA

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The 2019 MLB season is quickly nearing and that means it is season long player prop time! For the 2018 season, I logged winners on 44 out of 67 (66%) season long player prop bets on their over/under marks in statistical categories. Those bets are undocumented outside of my own records, but those who know me well know I am an honest gentleman, and they also know I have a bit of a knack on this baseball thing.

Laying down some of that hard-earned cheddar to have to wait over six months to see any potential return on these season long props can be quite a drawn out process, but hey, baseball is a drawn out sport that is not for the impatient or for the thrill seeking adrenaline junkies. So if you are one that can truly appreciate the thought, deliberation, skill, and strategy that goes into this game that most grown men can only dream of playing for a living, then you should have no problem waiting the six plus months to see your bankroll additions! But if you are one that thinks baseball is “boring,” a.) I don’t necessarily blame you and b.) then you can still read the analysis below, bet it and forget it, don’t watch a single at-bat all season, then login to your account on September 30 for a pleasant monetary surprise.

These picks are based off my personal hand-crafted statistical player projections.

***Unless noted otherwise, all lines are from MyBookie.

LIKES

Gerrit Cole: Under 3.29 ERA (-115) – The trade that sent Cole from the Pirates to the Astros in the off-season prior to the 2018 season was an amazing move for him just to join a club that understood how to extract the most out of his repertoire and play to his talents. Predictably so, the Astros helped him to scrap his sinker, which was not a good pitch for him at all and the Pirates insisted on him using it, and the Astros had him turn up the usage on his breaking pitches. Add in the fact that his velocity was at an all-time best and the finished product was a tremendous breakout season with a 2.88 ERA that was certainly for real. As long as he has those breaking pitches working then he will be able to mostly replicate last year’s performance. The Backwards K projection: 2.92 ERA

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Betting: 2019 MLB Season Player Props – Saves

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The 2019 MLB season is quickly nearing and that means it is season long player prop time! For the 2018 season, I logged winners on 44 out of 67 (66%) season long player prop bets on their over/under marks in statistical categories. Those bets are undocumented outside of my own records, but those who know me well know I am an honest gentleman, and they also know I have a bit of a knack on this baseball thing.

Laying down some of that hard-earned cheddar to have to wait over six months to see any potential return on these season long props can be quite a drawn out process, but hey, baseball is a drawn out sport that is not for the impatient or for the thrill seeking adrenaline junkies. So if you are one that can truly appreciate the thought, deliberation, skill, and strategy that goes into this game that most grown men can only dream of playing for a living, then you should have no problem waiting the six plus months to see your bankroll additions! But if you are one that thinks baseball is “boring,” a.) I don’t necessarily blame you and b.) then you can still read the analysis below, bet it and forget it, don’t watch a single at-bat all season, then login to your account on September 30 for a pleasant monetary surprise.

These picks are based off my personal hand-crafted statistical player projections.

***Unless noted otherwise, all lines are from MyBookie.

Like with wins, saves are certainly not the most easy projected stat. In fact, there’s so much volatility within the closer role that we can only realistically predict that 10 pitchers who start the season as a team’s closer will hold that role all season long. With more and more teams shifting to the thought process to use your best reliever in the highest leverage situation, saves have become even harder to projection in the recent years. So you’re not going to see many likes and leans in this post, but there are a couple that I think are worth it.

So let’s get caught looking at these props!

LIKES

Blake Treinen: Over 32.5 saves (-130) – Treinen was my favorite relief pitcher to target in fantasy drafts last season given his draft day cost mixed with the upside I thought he had, and he certainly did not disappoint. He notched 38 saves, often while pitching multiple innings (8 saves of more than 1 inning pitched). Armed with a real nasty sinker and slider combo at high velocities, Treinen should continue to be one of the more difficult closers to hit. His overall stats will regress naturally, but that doesn’t mean he’s not a solid bet for over 32.5 saves here. *Sidenote: this line is at 27.5 saves on Bovada, which is a steal compared to this MyBookie line. But I liked it at 32.5, so that’s what I am posting here officially. The Backwards K projection: 37 saves

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Betting: 2019 MLB Season Player Props – Wins

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The 2019 MLB season is quickly nearing and that means it is season long player prop time! For the 2018 season, I logged winners on 44 out of 67 (66%) season long player prop bets on their over/under marks in statistical categories. Those bets are undocumented outside of my own records, but those who know me well know I am an honest gentleman, and they also know I have a bit of a knack on this baseball thing.

Laying down some of that hard-earned cheddar to have to wait over six months to see any potential return on these season long props can be quite a drawn out process, but hey, baseball is a drawn out sport that is not for the impatient or for the thrill seeking adrenaline junkies. So if you are one that can truly appreciate the thought, deliberation, skill, and strategy that goes into this game that most grown men can only dream of playing for a living, then you should have no problem waiting the six plus months to see your bankroll additions! But if you are one that thinks baseball is “boring,” a.) I don’t necessarily blame you and b.) then you can still read the analysis below, bet it and forget it, don’t watch a single at-bat all season, then login to your account on September 30 for a pleasant monetary surprise.

These picks are based off my personal hand-crafted statistical player projections.

***Unless noted otherwise, all lines are from MyBookie.

Wins can be difficult to project due to the nature of the statistic being volatile from pitcher to pitcher and/or team to team. For a perfect real life example of this, look no further than Jacob deGrom and his mere 10 wins in 2018, despite posting a 1.70 ERA and 0.91 WHIP. The way the wins totals are projected here in order to identify which props to like pertains to the pitcher’s team’s runs totals projected as an average from multiple projection systems, and also incorporating the pitcher’s projected ERA based off my own projections.

So let’s get caught looking at these props!

LIKES

Max Scherzer: Over 15.5 wins (-140) – The line is high. The juice is high. But Max is the Scher-thing. Yes, as I pointed out in the introduction, wins can be fluky (either in a good way or bad way). But an elite pitcher is going to put himself in position to win a lot of games, and good fortune with run support and bullpen support will help. Scherzer has gone over 15.5 wins in six of the last seven seasons. There is not much else needed to be said. The Backwards K projection: 18 wins

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Betting: 2019 MLB Season Player Props – Stolen Bases

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The 2019 MLB season is quickly nearing and that means it is season long player prop time! For the 2018 season, I logged winners on 44 out of 67 (66%) season long player prop bets on their over/under marks in statistical categories. Those bets are undocumented outside of my own records, but those who know me well know I am an honest gentleman, and they also know I have a bit of a knack on this baseball thing.

Laying down some of that hard-earned cheddar to have to wait over six months to see any potential return on these season long props can be quite a drawn out process, but hey, baseball is a drawn out sport that is not for the impatient or for the thrill seeking adrenaline junkies. So if you are one that can truly appreciate the thought, deliberation, skill, and strategy that goes into this game that most grown men can only dream of playing for a living, then you should have no problem waiting the six plus months to see your bankroll additions! But if you are one that thinks baseball is “boring,” a.) I don’t necessarily blame you and b.) then you can still read the analysis below, bet it and forget it, don’t watch a single at-bat all season, then login to your account on September 30 for a pleasant monetary surprise.

These picks are based off my personal hand-crafted statistical player projections.

***Unless noted otherwise, all lines are from MyBookie.

***I will be referencing a stat called SBA/TOB. This is “stolen base attempts per time on base.” It is (stolen bases + caught stealing) / (singles + doubles + walks + hit by pitches). It is not an exact measurement due to the fact that players will also reach via fielder’s choice or fielding errors, and also a player may reach base but the base in front of them may be occupied, which would prevent them from even attempting a stolen base unless it was a double steal.

So let’s get caught looking at these props!

LIKES

Trea Turner: Over 43.5 stolen bases (-125) – As referenced in Betting: 2019 MLB Season Player Props – Runs, Trea’s manager, Dave Martinez, wants him to attempt 75-80 stolen bases. Obviously for this player prop, that would be extremely ideal, but just the mere mention of it by Martinez may mean he views or wants Turner as his regular leadoff hitter this year after logging a greater number of plate appearances from the 2-hole. Out of the leadoff spot last year, Turner had a SBA/TOB mark of 26.1%, which is a good but not elite mark, but it also was still considerably higher than his 19.5% mark out of the 2-hole. From the 2-hole, in front of Bryce Harper, Turner just seemed much more hesitant to attempt to steal as that would lead to Harper being intentionally walked or pitched around. Overall as a leadoff hitter in his career, Turner has a SBA/TOB mark of 38.0% — now that’s more of an elite mark. And actually, if he gets back to that rate, he probably would get 75 attempts if avoiding the IL. But more conservatively, I have him projected at a 29.0% mark with a success rate right in line with his career rate of 83.2%. The Backwards K projection: 51 stolen bases Continue reading →

Betting: 2019 MLB Season Player Props – Runs

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The 2019 MLB season is quickly nearing and that means it is season long player prop time! For the 2018 season, I logged winners on 44 out of 67 (66%) season long player prop bets on their over/under marks in statistical categories. Those bets are undocumented outside of my own records, but those who know me well know I am an honest gentleman, and they also know I have a bit of a knack on this baseball thing.

Laying down some of that hard-earned cheddar to have to wait over six months to see any potential return on these season long props can be quite a drawn out process, but hey, baseball is a drawn out sport that is not for the impatient or for the thrill seeking adrenaline junkies. So if you are one that can truly appreciate the thought, deliberation, skill, and strategy that goes into this game that most grown men can only dream of playing for a living, then you should have no problem waiting the six plus months to see your bankroll additions! But if you are one that thinks baseball is “boring,” a.) I don’t necessarily blame you and b.) then you can still read the analysis below, bet it and forget it, don’t watch a single at-bat all season, then login to your account on September 30 for a pleasant monetary surprise.

These picks are based off my personal hand-crafted statistical player projections.

***Unless noted otherwise, all lines are from MyBookie.

***I will be referencing a stat called R/TOB. This is “runs scored per time on base” and measures the rate at which a player scores a run from the times they put themselves on base (this excludes home runs).

So let’s get caught looking at these props!

LIKES

Andrew Benintendi: Over 99.5 runs (-115) – Red Sox manager Alex Cora has stated his intentions to have reigning AL MVP be the club’s primary #2 hitter after having all but 6 of his 614 plate appearances last year come from the leadoff spot. This means that Benintendi now becomes the primary leadoff man for the defending champions. The move makes sense given that at each of their respective stages in their careers, Betts has the better hit tool to be driving guys in and putting the ball in play to create that action, and Benintendi does have the ability to post an above average OBP mark that would be desired out of a leadoff man. In a lineup as potent as the Red Sox, the switch from 2nd to leadoff for Benintendi may seem negligible, but having both Betts and J.D. Martinez behind him has to be seen as an on paper upgrade for his runs scored potential where his R/TOB could hit 40%. The Backwards K projection: 110 runs

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Betting: 2019 MLB Season Player Props – RBI

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The 2019 MLB season is quickly nearing and that means it is season long player prop time! For the 2018 season, I logged winners on 44 out of 67 (66%) season long player prop bets on their over/under marks in statistical categories. Those bets are undocumented outside of my own records, but those who know me well know I am an honest gentleman, and they also know I have a bit of a knack on this baseball thing.

Laying down some of that hard-earned cheddar to have to wait over six months to see any potential return on these season long props can be quite a drawn out process, but hey, baseball is a drawn out sport that is not for the impatient or for the thrill seeking adrenaline junkies. So if you are one that can truly appreciate the thought, deliberation, skill, and strategy that goes into this game that most grown men can only dream of playing for a living, then you should have no problem waiting the six plus months to see your bankroll additions! But if you are one that thinks baseball is “boring,” a.) I don’t necessarily blame you and b.) then you can still read the analysis below, bet it and forget it, don’t watch a single at-bat all season, then login to your account on September 30 for a pleasant monetary surprise.

These picks are based off my personal hand-crafted statistical player projections.

***Unless noted otherwise, all lines are from MyBookie.

***I will be referencing a stat labeled RBI/BIP. This is RBI per ball in play. A “ball in play” in this scenario is defined as any batted ball that does not result in a home run. And to account for the fact that home runs may be solo shots, 2-run shots, 3-run shots, or grand slams, this RBI/BIP play stat involves a constant of 1.565 that is multiplied by the number of home runs. This method is borrowed from Mike Podhorzer of Fangraphs.

So let’s get caught looking at these props!

LIKES

Trevor Story: Over 99.5 RBI (-115) – As I mentioned in Betting: 2019 MLB Season Player Props – Home Runs (Part One), I think Story’s big year last year can have some stick, and I also think he should spend a bit more time out of the cleanup spot than 5th this year. Story spent 39.5% of his plate appearances cleaning up and 52% hitting 5th, but I think at worst those numbers will flip flop this year with the decent chance he is the team’s unquestioned cleanup hitter. The switch in lineup spots wouldn’t necessarily be huge to his RBI total, but in theory it should at least help a bit. In 312 career plate appearances hitting cleanup, Story has an extremely robust RBI/BIP of 14.4%. As the #5 hitter in 549 career plate appearances, his mark is at a healthy 11.7%. Aided by Coors Field as his home park and having proved to be a very capable power hitter, I see no reason to project his RBI/BIP at less than 11.7%, so my RBI projection for him is based off the level of 12.0% RBI/BIP. The Backwards K projection: 106 RBI

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Betting: 2019 MLB Season Player Props – Home Runs (Part Two)

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The 2019 MLB season is quickly nearing and that means it is season long player prop time! For the 2018 season, I logged winners on 44 out of 67 (66%) season long player prop bets on their over/under marks in statistical categories. Those bets are undocumented outside of my own records, but those who know me well know I am an honest gentleman, and they also know I have a bit of a knack on this baseball thing.

Laying down some of that hard-earned cheddar to have to wait over six months to see any potential return on these season long props can be quite a drawn out process, but hey, baseball is a drawn out sport that is not for the impatient or for the thrill seeking adrenaline junkies. So if you are one that can truly appreciate the thought, deliberation, skill, and strategy that goes into this game that most grown men can only dream of playing for a living, then you should have no problem waiting the six plus months to see your bankroll additions! But if you are one that thinks baseball is “boring,” a.) I don’t necessarily blame you and b.) then you can still read the analysis below, bet it and forget it, don’t watch a single at-bat all season, then login to your account on September 30 for a pleasant monetary surprise.

These picks are based off my personal hand-crafted statistical player projections. ***Unless noted otherwise, all lines are from MyBookie.

The largest percentage of my player prop picks are on home runs, so the home runs category is going to be broken up into two parts. This post will focus on all picks that have a home run over/under of 23.5 or less.

So let’s get caught looking at these props!

LIKES

Anthony Rendon: Over 23.5 home runs (-115) – Sir Anthony Rendon is a doubles machine, producing a double every 12.20 at-bats over the last two seasons combined. I posit that this season he will translate some of those doubles into home runs. From 2013-2015, Rendon posted sub-40% flyball rates, but has been at 43.6% or greater in each season from 2016-2018, peaking at 47.2% in 2017. So clearly, whether consciously or not, he’s become a part of the flyball revolution, but he just has yet to see that elusive 30 home run season thanks to never exceeding a 12.3% HR/flyball%. However, given his batted ball profile, I see a very realistic pathway for Rendon to post a HR/flyball% north of 15%. Couple that with his strong ability to put the ball in play and this is a potential jackpot for an unsuspected easy win. The Backwards K projection: 32 home runs

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Betting: 2019 MLB Season Player Props – Home Runs (Part One)

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The 2019 MLB season is quickly nearing and that means it is season long player prop time! For the 2018 season, I logged winners on 44 out of 67 (66%) season long player prop bets on their over/under marks in statistical categories. Those bets are undocumented outside of my own records, but those who know me well know I am an honest gentleman, and they also know I have a bit of a knack on this baseball thing.

Laying down some of that hard-earned cheddar to have to wait over six months to see any potential return on these season long props can be quite a drawn out process, but hey, baseball is a drawn out sport that is not for the impatient or for the thrill seeking adrenaline junkies. So if you are one that can truly appreciate the thought, deliberation, skill, and strategy that goes into this game that most grown men can only dream of playing for a living, then you should have no problem waiting the six plus months to see your bankroll additions! But if you are one that thinks baseball is “boring,” a.) I don’t necessarily blame you and b.) then you can still read the analysis below, bet it and forget it, don’t watch a single at-bat all season, then login to your account on September 30 for a pleasant monetary surprise.

These picks are based off my personal hand-crafted statistical player projections. ***Unless noted otherwise, all lines are from MyBookie.

The largest percentage of my player prop picks are on home runs, so the home runs category is going to be broken up into two parts. This post will focus on all picks that have a home run over/under of 24.5 or greater.

So let’s get caught looking at these props!

LIKES

Aaron Judge: Over 39.5 home runs (+105) – I am not too sure why we are getting plus odds here, but we will most certainly accept it. Last year, your honor was not quite on pace to repeat his monstrous 52 HR rookie season, but he did pop 26 HR in the Yankees’ first 100 games before getting plunked with a fractured wrist in the 101st game. That only equates to a 42 HR pace before the injury, but that still would have eclipsed this 39.5 home run line. The drop in pace was also a byproduct of his flyball% dropping from 43.2% to 35.0%. He is still young and growing as a hitter, so I move for him to gain back some of those flyballs and I think Judge will oblige and grant the motion. The Backwards K projection: 43 home runs

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