Category Archives: Fantasy Baseball Daily Notes/Analysis

10 Bold Predictions & the End of Season Predictions

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The 2016 MLB season is underway and here are some BOLD predictions. But just because I am predicting these things, doesn’t mean that I think they will actually happen. However, I do think that there’s a fair chance for any of them to happen and I’ll support each prediction with an explanation. Then down towards the bottom are some End of Season Predictions with division champions, pennant champions World Series Champions, and awards.

10 BOLD PREDICTIONS FOR THE 2016 MLB SEASON

1.) Brandon Belt will hit .300 with 25 HR and 10 SB to be a top 5 first baseman in standard 5×5 roto leagues. I went over Belt in the 2016 Fantasy Baseball First Basemen Rankings, but basically I think that this is the year that he puts everything together. He’s already a very good hitter that hits a lot of line drives, gets hard contact, and doesn’t pop the ball up. In order to hit .300, he has to trim his strikeouts A LOT, but he showed signs of improvement there as he finished Spring Training with 10 K/10 BB in 60 PA, which translates to a 16.7% in each category. Belt has ranged from 21.9% to 27.2% in K% throughout his career, so if he falls anywhere under the low end of that range then a .300 AVG could be within reach. Belt has reached double digits in SB before, but his career high in HR is only 18. His home park in San Francisco certainly does him no favors for the long ball, but he can just hit the ball at such a hard rate with a good average distance that his power can really begin to show at age 28. Continue reading →

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2016 Fantasy Baseball Starting Pitcher Rankings (#1-30)

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Below are THE BACKWARDS K 2016 FANTASY BASEBALL STARTING PITCHER RANKINGS (#1-30). Included for each player is “The Backwards K Quick Take” and a self-produced player projection for 2016.

***Please note the following:

  • The player’s names are color coded to signal different tiers at the position.
  • The rankings reflect standard 5×5 roto scoring settings (W/SV/ERA/WHIP/K) with position eligibility requirements as 10 total games played at a position in 2015, or 5 total games started at a position in 2015 (i.e. Yahoo! settings).
  • The numerical order is not necessarily a suggested order to draft them in, but it is the order that is calculated based on each player’s listed projections, unless noted otherwise.
  • Noted in some players’ “Quick Takes” is if they gain or lose notable value in points leagues that factor penalize hitter strikeouts and reward hitter walks.

Continue reading →

2016 Fantasy Baseball Relief Pitcher Rankings

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Closers…You either hate them or you…hate them. There’s really no other alternative. The position is extremely volatile. Imagine two friends hanging out on a road trip together. We’ll call them Swaggy and D-Lo. Swaggy is confiding in D-Lo about his infidelities regarding betraying his special lady friend — we’ll call her Black Widow. And what Swaggy doesn’t know is that D-Lo is secretly filming what Swaggy is saying about cheating on Black Widow. Then somehow D-Lo’s video finds its way to the internet, but he swears he doesn’t know how it got there…and then some guy named Kobe secretly gives it a nice long chuckle. Well, closers in MLB are more volatile than even that situation! Need proof? Consider this…

There are 30 teams in MLB. Last year at some point or another — whether it was due to injury, trade, poor performance, getting caught going heavy on the PED’s, having an asinine post-game celebration, wearing a baseball cap too far to the side, or some combination of the above (I’m looking at you Mr. Rodney) — 15 players that were their team’s closer on Opening Day were not their team’s closer for at least a total of 2 months of the season (the majority of the 15 weren’t closer for at least 3 months). 15 of 30. And if I know my fractions, that reduces to 1/2. Half the teams in baseball last year had a change at closer. 50%!

The point is that while it’s nice to have a couple of those fortunate 15 for your fantasy squad, it’s really not the most important thing. There WILL be a carousel of closers that could be readily available to you if you miss out on the ones that you want. All you have to do is pay attention, hit the waiver wire, plug and play — and BOOM! You now have saves. 

This relief pitchers rankings list contains all of the pitchers who are either *expected* to be their team’s closer on Opening Day or who are *considered* to be their team’s closer but are going to start the season on the DL/suspended list. Other setup men might be mentioned within other players’ descriptions, but will not be ranked if they don’t meet the aforementioned criteria. But other setup men who I like to possibly ascend to closer status will be bullet pointed at the end of the rankings.

Below are THE BACKWARDS K 2016 FANTASY BASEBALL RELIEF PITCHER RANKINGS. Included for each player is “The Backwards K Quick Take” and a self-produced player projection for 2016.

***Please note the following:

  • The player’s names are color coded to signal different tiers at the position.
  • The rankings reflect standard 5×5 roto scoring settings (W/SV/ERA/WHIP/K) with position eligibility requirements as 10 total games played at a position in 2015, or 5 total games started at a position in 2015 (i.e. Yahoo! settings).
  • The numerical order is not necessarily a suggested order to draft them in, but it is the order that is calculated based on each player’s listed projections, unless noted otherwise.

Continue reading →

2016 Fantasy Baseball Outfielder Rankings (#1-30)

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Outfield is a fun position because just from the sheer quantity of outfielders that there are, there are so many that can unexpectedly (or maybe it is expected if you’re a fantasy shark) ascend to the top 30 outfielders in any given year. For instance, last season we saw the likes of A.J. Pollock, Lorenzo Cain, Mookie Betts, and David Peralta emerge to be some of the best return on investments in the fantasy outfield landscape. Who will be this year’s risers? Keep on reading to find out who The Backwards K thinks it will be! 

Below are THE BACKWARDS K 2016 FANTASY BASEBALL OUTFIELDER RANKINGS (#1-30). Included for each player is “The Backwards K Quick Take” and a self-produced player projection for 2016.

***Please note the following:

  • The player’s names are color coded to signal different tiers at the position.
  • The rankings reflect standard 5×5 roto scoring settings (AVG/HR/RBI/R/SB) with position eligibility requirements as 10 total games played at a position in 2015, or 5 total games started at a position in 2015 (i.e. Yahoo! settings).
  • The numerical order is not necessarily a suggested order to draft them in, but it is the order that is calculated based on each player’s listed projections, unless noted otherwise.
  • Noted in some players’ “Quick Takes” is if they gain or lose notable value in points leagues that factor penalize hitter strikeouts and reward hitter walks.

Continue reading →

2016 Fantasy Baseball Shortstop Rankings

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It’s an exciting time for shortstops in fantasy baseball, and for reality baseball for that matter as well — but as I like to say…this is real living in a fantasy world. And I can’t get enough of it! 7 of the top 10 ranked shortstops on this list are 23 years old or younger. Yes, that is correct! That is the state of where this position is moving toward in fantasy baseball, which might make it appear to be very attractive and deeper than recent years. I will say that it is deeper in terms of the amount of talent and potential, but there might be an overrating of some of the young talent. I know what you’re thinking — “How can you say it’s overrating of young talent when you have 7 of the youngsters ranked so highly in the top 10?” Well, it’s simple. There’s the super elite talent at the top 2, but after that it is a steep dropoff to some of these other youngsters that are being treated as if they are already valuable fantasy commodities when in the reality of the fantasy world they have much to prove. Yet, they are still better than much of the rest of the shortstop player pool.

Below are THE BACKWARDS K 2016 FANTASY BASEBALL SHORTSTOP RANKINGS. Included for each player is “The Backwards K Quick Take” and a self-produced player projection for 2016.

***Please note the following:

  • The player’s names are color coded to signal different tiers at the position.
  • The rankings reflect standard 5×5 roto scoring settings (AVG/HR/RBI/R/SB) with position eligibility requirements as 10 total games played at a position in 2015, or 5 total games started at a position in 2015 (i.e. Yahoo! settings).
  • The numerical order is not necessarily a suggested order to draft them in, but it is the order that is calculated based on each player’s listed projections, unless noted otherwise.
  • Noted in some players’ “Quick Takes” is if they gain or lose notable value in points leagues that factor penalize hitter strikeouts and reward hitter walks.

Continue reading →

2016 Fantasy Baseball Third Basemen Rankings

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The third basemen rankings are front loaded with some pretty excellent talent that includes an MVP, a slew of rising stars under the age of 25, and a couple of consistent veterans. Once you get passed all of that fantasy goodness though, the depth of the position really begins to lack as several of the players are also eligible at what are generally considered to be shallower positions like second base and shortstop — with second base lacking star talent depth and shortstop just lacking reliable depth. I certainly would want to come away with one of the first 8 or 9 third basemen listed in the rankings because after they’re off the board, the hot corner won’t be looking so hot anymore.

Below are THE BACKWARDS K 2016 FANTASY BASEBALL THIRD BASEMEN RANKINGS. Included for each player is “The Backwards K Quick Take” and a self-produced player projection for 2016.

***Please note the following:

  • The player’s names are color coded to signal different tiers at the position.
  • The rankings reflect standard 5×5 roto scoring settings (AVG/HR/RBI/R/SB) with position eligibility requirements as 10 total games played at a position in 2015, or 5 total games started at a position in 2015 (i.e. Yahoo! settings).
  • The numerical order is not necessarily a suggested order to draft them in, but it is the order that is calculated based on each player’s listed projections, unless noted otherwise.
  • Noted in some players’ “Quick Takes” is if they gain or lose notable value in points leagues that factor penalize hitter strikeouts and reward hitter walks.

Continue reading →

2016 Fantasy Baseball Second Basemen Rankings

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The second base position appears to be getting deeper with usable fantasy players, and in that sense it is probably the next deepest infield position behind first base. However, just because the player pool at the position is deep, that doesn’t mean that there’s a slew of elite talent there. To reference How I Met Your Mother, this is like the “cheerleader effect” when looking at second basemen. As a collective group, this pool of players may look pretty attractive 17 players or so down the list when you see the guys with the name value like Ian Kinsler, Ben Zobrist, and Dustin Pedroia, but when looking at them individually you see that most of them have their own sticking point, and there are really only a few studly looking gentlemen that you actually want to get to second base with. See what I did there?

Below are THE BACKWARDS K 2016 FANTASY BASEBALL SECOND BASEMEN RANKINGS. Included for each player is “The Backwards K Quick Take” and a self-produced player projection for 2016.

***Please note the following:

  • The player’s names are color coded to signal different tiers at the position.
  • The rankings reflect standard 5×5 roto scoring settings (AVG/HR/RBI/R/SB) with position eligibility requirements as 10 total games played at a position in 2015, or 5 total games started at a position in 2015 (i.e. Yahoo! settings).
  • The numerical order is not necessarily a suggested order to draft them in, but it is the order that is calculated based on each player’s listed projections, unless noted otherwise.
  • Noted in some players’ “Quick Takes” is if they gain or lose notable value in points leagues that factor penalize hitter strikeouts and reward hitter walks.

Continue reading →

2016 Fantasy Baseball First Basemen Rankings

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We are on to a much more exciting position now, generally the one with the most power, and we all know that chicks dig the long ball, right fellas? So make it a point to get some power at first base, but know that it’s not the end of your fantasy season before it even starts if you don’t get power here.

Below are THE BACKWARDS K 2016 FANTASY BASEBALL FIRST BASEMEN RANKINGS. Included for each player is “The Backwards K Quick Take” and a self-produced player projection for 2016.

***Please note the following:

  • The player’s names are color coded to signal different tiers at the position.
  • The rankings reflect standard 5×5 roto scoring settings (AVG/HR/RBI/R/SB) with position eligibility requirements as 10 total games played at a position in 2015, or 5 total games started at a position in 2015 (i.e. Yahoo! settings).
  • The numerical order is not necessarily a suggested order to draft them in, but it is the order that is calculated based on each player’s listed projections, unless noted otherwise.
  • Noted in some players’ “Quick Takes” is if they gain or lose notable value in points leagues that factor penalize hitter strikeouts and reward hitter walks.

Continue reading →

2016 Fantasy Baseball Catcher Rankings

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We all know that the catcher position in fantasy baseball is the most shallow, which is a direct result of catchers not collecting as much playing time than other positions because of the need for constant days off due to the rigors of the position. So just how important is it to grab one of the top ranked catchers? There are a couple of factors that should be taken into consideration.

First, is your league a 1-catcher or 2-catcher league? (i.e. how many catchers does each team have in the starting lineup?) In 2-catcher leagues, catchers carry significantly more value because the output of a replacement level catcher (i.e. an un-drafted catcher that you could easily pick up off the waiver wire) is extremely low. So someone of Buster Posey’s caliber in performance and consistency could actually be a borderline top 12 pick in 2-catcher leagues.

Second, how many teams are in your league? The lesser the number of teams, the lesser the emphasis there needs to be on drafting a top catcher. For instance, in a 10-team league that starts 1 catcher, the value gap between the top ranked catcher and a replacement level catcher is considerably less than a 16-team league that starts 1 catcher.

These are just some factors to consider when talking about fantasy catchers.

Below are THE BACKWARDS K 2016 FANTASY BASEBALL CATCHER RANKINGS. Included for each player is “The Backwards K Quick Take” and a self-produced player projection for 2016. 

***Please note the following:

  • The player’s names are color coded to signal different tiers at the position.
  • The rankings reflect standard 5×5 roto scoring settings (AVG/HR/RBI/R/SB) with position eligibility requirements as 10 total games played at a position in 2015, or 5 total games started at a position in 2015 (i.e. Yahoo! settings).
  • The numerical order is not necessarily a suggested order to draft them in, but it is the order that is calculated based on each player’s listed projections, unless noted otherwise.
  • Noted in some players’ “Quick Takes” is if they gain or lose notable value in points leagues that factor in penalize hitter strikeouts and reward hitter walks. Continue reading →

MLB DFS Strategy for Wednesday 9/30/15

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STRATEGY FOR WEDNESDAY SEPTEMBER 30, 2015

Greetings all! I’m short on time here, so today’s article isn’t going to have the same format or as detailed analysis and information. Also, keep in mind that the weather in the eastern part of the nation this week might be a bit wet, as evidenced by the three games that were rained out and postponed yesterday, which surely crushed many hopeful DFS lineups. The weather across the slate looks pretty clean for now in terms of getting all the games in, but some strong winds may play a factor. ALWAYS be aware of the weather! So with that being said, let’s get down to it.

PITCHERS

  • Masahiro Tanaka ($10,200) is the highest priced pitcher of the day, but he runs into a Red Sox team that is on a 5-game winning streak with 32 runs generated during that time. Despite a 3-0 record against the Sox this season, Tanaka has not pitched particularly well against them with a 5.20 ERA and he has been nursing a hamstring injury. The Yankees really need a win here to shift their momentum heading into the post-season, but I don’t like the outlook for Tanaka against the surging (better late than never) Red Sox.
  • The lefty Drew Smyly ($9,900) has a home matchup against a Marlins team that is very unimposing and has been featuring a lot of left-handed bats lately. Like fellow lefty Matt Moore, Smyly should have a decent amount of success against the fish and he also carries a good deal of strikeout upside.
  • Jon Lester ($9,600) is seemingly coming at a reduced price in a road game at Cincy and I think that he makes for a nice play. The veteran lefty has seen the Reds three times this season and had two really nice DraftKings scores and one game was a bit of a dud, but I like his chances to produce a third good score. Lester has done a pretty good job at limiting the damage from the Reds’ best hitters and they are a team that can strikeout a lot, as evidenced by Lester’s 10 K performance against them earlier in the season.
  • Garrett Richards ($9,200) is pitching for an Angels team that is surging and very hungry for a post-season berth. He is the number one guy in their rotation and there’s no bigger game for the Angels this season than this one as they head into a 4-game series at Texas to conclude the regular season. The A’s generally don’t strikeout a whole lot, but Richards’ teammate Nick Tropeano punched out 11 A’s yesterday as perhaps the A’s have mailed it in. Richards has nice upside and has been pitching pretty well as of late.
  • Jordan Zimmermann ($8,100) is taking on the not so powerful Braves who he has baffled this season with a 1.97 ERA in 5 starts. Not usually known for his big strikeout appeal, Zimmermann has struck out nearly a batter per inning in the second half of the season (82 K in 84 IP) and definitely has some appeal here at a cheaper price and against a poor offense.
  • It may seem like a bargain for Scott Kazmir ($7,600), but I would not trust the lefty here. He hasn’t been sharp at all in September, the Astros are the worst road team in the AL (which hurts his chances at a win), and the Mariners have some right-handed bats that could really put a hurting on Kazmir (Nelson Cruz and Franklin Gutierrez). Avoid.
  • If you want to go cheap then I would suggest Andrew Cashner ($6,100) and Logan Verrett ($4,000). Cashner has been a huge disappointment this season, but on paper this is a pretty decent matchup pitching at Petco Park against a Brewers offense that is missing Ryan Braun. Cashner still carries a good amount of risk, but he does have big game potential. Verrett will likely be pretty highly owned due to his dirt cheap minimum price and a matchup against the lowly Phillies, but we can’t ignore him and the opportunity that he has. Verrett had a similar opportunity last week against the Braves and didn’t capitalize on it, but I would expect better of him this time and he has a great chance at a win.

HITTERS

  • The Mets seem like some pretty obvious stack option taking on the flyball heavy, unimpressive rookie Alec Asher. (NOTE: Beware of heavy winds blowing in from LF though)
  • The Angels will see the washed up veteran lefty Barry Zito, which presents a great opportunity for those right-handed bats.
  • The Rangers feature a lot of left-handed bats in their lineup, so taking on the lefty Matt Boyd may not seem ideal, but a few of those lefties have done well against Boyd this season. Rougned Odor and Mitch Moreland in particular have homered against him.
  • Mike Pelfrey has been absolute garbage on the road for the Twins this year with an ERA over 5.00, so the Indians seem like an ideal target that can be stacked with all those left-handed/switch-hitting bats they have. (NOTE: Beware of heavy winds blowing in from RF though)
  • Sneakily we can consider the Red Sox against the top priced pitcher Masahiro Tanaka who the Red Sox have hit well, as previously mentioned. (NOTE: Beware of heavy winds blowing in from LF though)
  • Also sneaky consideration should be given to the Mariners with those right-handed sluggers Nelson Cruz and Franklin Gutierrez having great potential. Gutierrez in particular is 10 for 23 with 3 HR against Kazmir.

***All player salaries reflect DraftKings pricing and the given strategy is more specific toward GPP (guaranteed prize pool) tournaments rather than cash games (head to head, 50/50, etc.).  

***Article written before confirmation of starting lineups

***All stats from FanGraphs

Fantasy Baseball Waiver Wire (9/25/15): Rich Hill Is Not Over the Hill Just Yet

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We are just days away from the final week of the fantasy baseball season so that means that this will be the year’s final Fantasy Baseball Waiver Wire column. Sad times, I know. But that won’t prevent me from getting an early start on preparing for next year’s fantasy baseball season as I will be doing some research and analysis as soon as the season is over. Yes, I’m aware that I have a fantasy baseball addiction — and there is no cure — and I love it!

The final week of the regular season is always a bit funky. There will be plenty of adjustments to teams’ starting rotations as they either rearrange theirs for post-season preparation, shut down pitchers due to workload concerns, or go to a 6-man rotation to give some pitchers extra rest and/or to give some pitchers an extra look before the season concludes. Because of that, forecasting 2-start pitchers in the final week is practically impossible, so it’s best to just find pitchers who are pitching well and have positive hopeful matchups. In addition, many starting pitchers may even have their final start of the season cut short after a few innings. The same thing goes for hitters — they may see more days off and early exits from games as teams may more often start players who are normally reserves and also work in pinch-hitters, pinch-runners, and defensive replacements. Just be prepared for these things to happen and then yell at your MLB.com At-Bat app when you see the bad news — I do it all the time.

I’ll review last week’s recommendations first (see full article here), some of which did pretty well, and then I’ll give another 6 hitters and 6 pitchers who you can utilize for the final days of the season. Good luck to you all and bring home a fantasy championship or two!

***NOTE: To qualify as a waiver wire recommendation, a player must be owned in less than 50% of Yahoo and ESPN leagues and less than 60% of CBS leagues (players typically have higher ownership levels on CBS). Continue reading →

Fantasy Baseball Waiver Wire (9/18/15): Find Comfort In Conforto

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Source: Howard Simmons/New York Daily News

Source: Howard Simmons/New York Daily News

We are getting down to the nitty gritty of it all with just 17 days left in the MLB season, so now is especially the time to not show fear. Take some risks by waiving certain players to pick up other players that may help you in a specific category and/or who are lined up for some very favorable matchups. The waiver wire is your friend more than ever this late in the season if you’re still in the running for your league’s championship. Chances are that half your league has checked out and they are contemplating which defense and kickers to stream for week 2 of the NFL season. Less league mates paying attention means that there’s lots of different things that you can do on your baseball waiver wire to improve your team each and every day for the rest of the season.

I’ll review last week’s recommendations first (see full article here) and then I’ll give another 6 hitters and 6 pitchers who are readily available and could be of interest to you.

***NOTE: To qualify as a waiver wire recommendation, a player must be owned in less than 50% of Yahoo and ESPN leagues and less than 60% of CBS leagues (players typically have higher ownership levels on CBS). Continue reading →

MLB DFS Strategy for Wednesday 9/16/15

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Mandatory Credit: Daniel Shirey-USA TODAY Sports

Mandatory Credit: Daniel Shirey-USA TODAY Sports

Season long fantasy sports leagues have been around for decades now and have really revolutionized the way both casual and hardcore sports fans look at the game.  But a more recent adaptation of fantasy sports is the daily fantasy sports (DFS) approach where you are only committed to a single day’s worth of games at a time and can win some serious cash on a daily basis.

***All player salaries reflect DraftKings pricing and the given strategy is more specific toward GPP (guaranteed prize pool) tournaments rather than cash games (head to head, 50/50, etc.).   Continue reading →

Fantasy Baseball Waiver Wire (9/11/15): Canha Can Do

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Mark Canha

Last week’s headliner, Franklin Gutierrez, didn’t end up providing any value at all over the last week because of an injury, but outside of Gutierrez, last week’s recommendations as a whole basically killed it. So hopefully you all we are able to capitalize on some of those players.

We have just a few weeks left in the season, so this is the time where you can’t be afraid to waive certain players that are battling nagging injuries or are slumping pretty badly, because it is all about maximizing what little opportunities remain. So scavenge that waiver wire, play those streamers, and win your league! Let’s look at some players who you might want to have on call, but first check out how last week’s recommendations did.

***NOTE: To qualify as a waiver wire recommendation, a player must be owned in less than 50% of Yahoo and ESPN leagues and less than 60% of CBS leagues (players typically have higher ownership levels on CBS). Continue reading →

Fantasy Baseball Waiver Wire (9/4/15): Frankly, You Should Pick Up Franklin Gutierrez

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Credit: Winslow Townson-USA TODAY SportsCredit: Winslow Townson-USA TODAY Sports

It’s the final month of the fantasy baseball season and chances are that many of the team managers in your league who are no longer in contention have checked out and stopped paying attention to the waiver wire. It’s an unfortunate circumstance in my opinion, as I like to play in leagues where teams remain competitive till the very end, but it does improve the chances of winning because that just means less competition when racing to the waiver wire to pick up some useful players.

So this week I am bringing to you another set of 6 hitters but only 5 pitchers this time because there just wasn’t a decent 6th pitching recommendation that I haven’t already given. These players could be of fantasy use to you for the upcoming week or even the remainder of the season. Let’s review last week’s recommendations first (see last week’s full article here) and then we will look at this week’s recommendations. Good luck!

***NOTE: To qualify as a waiver wire recommendation, a player must be owned in less than 50% of Yahoo and ESPN leagues and less than 60% of CBS leagues (players typically have higher ownership levels on CBS). Continue reading →